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Sunday, January 2, 2011

Tensions in Korea

One issue of international importance that is of great concern to me at the moment is the growing tension between North and South Korea. Since I moved to South Korea for work, the sinking of a South Korean naval ship has occurred and the island of Yeonpyong was shelled by North Korea. As a result, many in the press have reported that tensions have not been higher since the end of the Korean Conflict in 1953. And if tensions continue to rise, the implications could be profound for Korea, the U.S., and the entire Asian region.

The Korean War has never technically ended and the U.S. retains over 28,000 troops in South Korea, a serious point of contention for the North. There has always been belligerence between the two Koreas since the 1953 armistice that ended fighting on the peninsula, but things were exacerbated in 2002 when it was discovered that North Korea was enriching uranium for nuclear weapons. Since then, the North has felt the need to regularly remind the world of its nuclear capability, usually to coerce some kind of concession from the U.S. or South Korea, or to simply be provocative. Yet, despite the periodic shows of force between the two countries, North and South Korea shared a relatively peaceful economic relationship during the 90s and early twenty-first century, largely as a result of President Kim Dae-Jung’s “Sunshine Policy.” But those ties quickly deteriorated in 2008 over stalled six-party talks and subsequent sanctions against the North, then abruptly ended early this year with the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan.

In March of this year, the ROKS Cheonan, a South Korean naval ship, was conducting military exercises in disputed waters when an explosion near the rear of the ship caused the vessel to sink, killing 46 sailors. An international investigation concluded that the sinking was the result of a North Korean torpedo, which the North adamantly denied and countries like China and Russia have disputed. The South nonetheless responded by reinstituting a controversial propaganda program aimed at the North while exhibiting a strong show of force by engaging in joint U.S./South Korean war games off the coast of the Korean peninsula. The exercises angered both North Korea and China and led to increased posturing and war rhetoric on both sides.

Then in November, with tensions already at an all time high, North Korea made the unprecedented decision to shell Yeonpyong Island, a small South Korean island near the North which houses a ROK military base. The shelling killed two marines and two civilians and marked the first time that North Korea has indiscriminately fired upon Southern territory with intent to harm since the end of the Korean Conflict. In response, the U.S. sent a carrier fleet to the Korean peninsula to conduct war games with the South, greatly angering China and North Korea, the latter of which threatened all-out war if the alliance infringed upon its territory.

Further heightening tensions, was the revelation by a U.S. nuclear scientist that he had been shown a sophisticated North Korean nuclear enrichment facility. The revelation was thought to be an attempt by the North to induce a return to six-party talks, but it appears to have had the opposite effect. The U.S., South Korea, and Japan declared in December that they would not resume negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear program until it changed its behavior.

Amidst all the tension, South Korea’s response, so far, has been restrained, but pressure on Prime Minister Lee Myung-bak to retaliate against the North is increasing. On November 25th South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae Young was replaced amidst criticism to his response to the Yeonpyong attack, and both Lee Myung-bak and South Korea’s Marine commander have promised counter strikes on the North’s missile base if Southern territory is further violated.

Meanwhile, China has become increasingly concerned over a greater U.S. presence in an area it has come to believe is part of its sphere of influence. This comes at a time when the U.S. is attempting to counter and contain that influence by renewing ties and increasing its presence in the region. What is more, Wikileaks revelation of U.S./South Korean diplomatic discussions over appeasing Chinese apprehensions of a reunified Korea under Southern control has no doubt alarmed and angered both North Korea and China.

And perhaps the most unsettling aspect of all is that all of this turmoil is unfolding during a transitioning of power in North Korea, which is often a delicate and dangerous process within dictatorships and one-party states. During such periods, there tends to be a lot of in-fighting and tension between military and political leaders, making the country less stable and more aggressive. Bad or illegitimate leaders will often look to outside threats to take attention away from domestic instability and to solidify their positions of power.

In conclusion, given the rise of China and the current dynamics in Eastern Asia, if fighting was to break out in Korea, the incident could escalate quickly into a much larger war between superpowers, which would badly destabilize the entire region and affect U.S. power abroad. Many South Koreans are on edge at the moment, and those in the press and in academia agree that tensions on the Korean peninsula have not been higher since the end of the Korean Conflict. Thus, what is happening now in Korea is of great concern to me as a current South Korean resident and as a political science major with State Department aspirations. I will continue to monitor this situation closely.

12/13/2010


Bibliography
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2800.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_%28PCC-772%29#Sinking

http://www.stripes.com/news/has-south-korean-finally-had-enough-1.128242?localLinksEnabled=false

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20101123/ts_yblog_thelookout/tensions-on-the-korean-peninsula-what-you-need-to-know

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2036641,00.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-26/south-korea-may-name-ex-general-security-aide-lee-hee-won-to-defense-post.html